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Indicative quotes on the secondary market country quote *** Algeria/TR-3,JPY 98.250 Morocco/TR-A 99.000 Burkina Faso/Trade 11.000 Chad/Trade 3.000 Cameroon/Trade 8.000 Cape Verde/Trade 50.000 Central African Rep./Trd 1.000 Congo/Trade 5.000 Dem Rep. Congo/Ls,Trd 4.000 Egypt/Conversion Trade 49.000 Ethiopia/Trade 5.000 Equatorial Guinea/Trade 80.000 Gabon/PD-Trade 37.000 Ghana/Trade 60.000 Guinea-Bissau/Trade 6.000 Kenya/Trade 31.000 Libya/Trade-CB 45.000 Liberia/Trade 2.750 Madagascar/Trade 40.000 Mali/Trade 22.000 Mauritania/Trade,CB 25.000 Senegal/Loans,Trade 9.000 Sudan/Trade 2.000 Tanzania/Loans,Trade 8.000 Uganda/Trade 11.000 Zambia/Loans,Trade 11.000 Zimbabwe/Trade 1.000 Bangladesh/Trade 85.000 Iraq/Trade, Eastern 10.000 Mongolia/Trade 22.000 Nepal/Trade 10.000 Papua-New Guinea/Trd 94.000 Philippines/Trade rec. 80.000 Syria/Trade,West,CB 6.000 Yemen/Loans,Trade,CBY 32.000
East-West Debt News flash January 2010
Spain. Spain's debt has grown from 36% to 66% of GDP in the last two years.

Although Greece has taken the center stage in the EU debt drama, Spain's debt has grown from 36% to 66% of GDP in the last two years. This matters especially because Spain has the 9th largest economy in the world, which means it is larger than Australia's, Canada's or even Brazil's. The sudden growth in debt is thanks to a budget deficit of 11.2 per cent this year, which is expected to still be around 10.2 per cent next year. While Spain's proportion of public debt to GDP is only about half the level of Greece, unemployment is much worse and the economy faces severe problems of competitiveness as well as high levels of public debt. The unemployment level in Spain is heading for 20 per cent in 2010 with a staggering 43 per cent of people under the age of twenty five out of work. Standard & Poor's, which cut its rating on Spanish debt to AA+ from AAA early last year, reduced Spain's debt outlook to negative in December 2009.

Default insurance surged 16 basis points after Nobel economist Paul Krugman said that "the biggest trouble spot isn't Greece, its Spain". He blamed EMU's one-size-fits-all monetary system, which has left the country with no defense against an adverse shock.

Spain has gone on the offensive targeting massive budget cuts as a means of bringing itself back in line with euro zone debt requirements. This includes cuts to social security, foreign aid, and a hiring freeze on the civil service. It is the latest attempt by the troubled state to dodge a crisis like Greece is in. The Spanish government has decided the best way to fight the crisis is with a combination of massive spending cuts and tax increases in what some are calling an "austerity budget." They are even going so far as to raise the retirement age from 65 to 67. The government is doing everything it can to meet its budget requirement for 2013, which includes knocking back its deficit from 11.4% of GDP in 2009 to 3% of GDP by 2013.

Paying for power
Spain's government will guarantee up to €10 billion in debt issued by power companies this year to cover the gap between the price Spanish consumers pay for electricity and the cost of producing it. The government will also give a guarantee for debt related to that difference for the entire period from 2009 to 2012, the Industry Ministry said in a release. The accumulated tariff deficit, from previous years up to now, adds up to €16 billion, the government said. The government also said that Spanish power companies will have to pay for the management and storage of nuclear waste themselves, which so far adds up to €2.7 billion.

The difference between the cost to the utilities of generating electricity and the income from selling it on the regulated market has ballooned in the past year due to increasing energy costs. Endesa (ELE.MC) is owed about 4.4 billion euros of accumulated tariff deficit, while Iberdrola (IBE.MC) has 3.3 billion due to it and Union Fenosa's UNF.MC figure is about 1.9 billion. The deficit appears on the companies' balance sheets as receivables until the amounts are securitized, putting pressure on liquidity since they form a long-term debt. Aside from a massive and unpopular hike in customers' electricity bills, the government could lower the deficit by increasing its CO2 clawback tax or reducing the premiums paid to renewable energy to lower the deficit, analysts said. The government has said it expects power companies to give ground in upcoming talks on deficit reduction.

House of Cards
Spanish real estate and construction firms are suffering a significant correction in their stock prices. This has sparked questions about the health of the sector, and alarmed investors and families that have mortgages to pay off. According to some organizations, people's homes could be overvalued by as much as 30%. The construction sector has been one of the country's motors of growth, so its cooling down could also affect the GDP. Construction and real estate firms hold over a quarter of debt in Spain and represent over a quarter of all suspended debt payments, according to Bank of Spain and government data. Many Spanish property firms are struggling to sell assets to pay down debt accumulated in Spain's decade-long housing boom. Spanish property firms have suffered falls of over 30 percent in house sales this year as the real estate sector seizes up in a global financial liquidity squeeze.

Will the spending cuts and possible tax hikes save Spain and the EU, only time will tell.

[PDF] Emerging Market Debt news by East-West Debt
[PDF] Emerging Market Debt news by East-West Debt
[PDF] Emerging Market Debt news by East-West Debt
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